MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0210
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
516 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...NORTHERN
AR...SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 112115Z - 120315Z

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES/HR AND
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NORTHERN OK/SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHERN AR AND
ALSO SOUTHWESTMO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY A NOSE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT IS POOLED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN AR AND IS WRAPPING BACK TO THE WEST
TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OK. LARGER
SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF A 90+ KT 250MB JET-STREAK
RIDING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AR IS PLACING MUCH OF THE MPD AREA IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT.

A NOSE OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWATS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY REACH UP TO 2.5 INCHES/HR AND ESPECIALLY
WITH THE FAVORABLE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO THE EAST AND
INTERACTS WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
TRANSPORTING THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD
UP THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES THROUGH MID-EVENING. THESE RAINS WILL BE
FALLING ON AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY...AND THE
WET ANTECENT CONDITIONS WILL ENCOURAGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF
AND FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...
SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38189532 38129385 37979265 37629100 37199012
            36358993 35899073 35789156 35789262 35899384
            36049532 35899643 35419811 35639896 36359933
            37149885 37739799 37969707