MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0230
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 190725Z - 191225Z

SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE
MAY RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW EXPANDING
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG A FAVORED PORTION OF THE DRY
LINE...WHERE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE ORIENTATION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE DRY LINE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE DRY
LINE ALLOWING FOR SOME TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
EVOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING POCKETS OF 3-5" OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO NEAR THE DRY LINE...HOWEVER AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES IT MAY
PROPAGATE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION CLOSELY...AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE MORNING...WITH IT AND ITS
OUTFLOW HELPING FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33169922 32859892 32639907 32339959 32050012
            31870075 31740132 31560209 31520242 31560252
            31840264 32170226 32510143 32870040