MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0231
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 190836Z - 191306Z

SUMMARY...A FEW FLASH FLOOD ISSUES MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...INCREASED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW (50+ KTS AT 850
MB) HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE JET. THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF
THIS CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. IN GENERAL THIS LINE OF CONVECTION HAS EXHIBITED ENOUGH OF
A NORTHWARD PUSH TO PREVENT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRAINING.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW...CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK AND/OR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE CONVECTIVE SWATH. THUS ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO ORGANIZE MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD AGAINST
THE MEAN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRAINING.

IN GENERAL THE BACK END OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
PROGRESSIVE...AND MOST INDICATIONS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IS FOR
THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER NO PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAS A REAL GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR THE TIME BEING
THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TERM AND MAINLY JUST A MINOR FLASH
FLOOD RISK...WITH POCKETS OF 2-4" OF RAIN LIKELY. HOWEVER WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE THIS TURNS
INTO A HIGHER END FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO HANG UP AND/OR ORIENTS ITSELF IN A WAY MORE CONDUCIVE TO
TRAINING.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37569448 37379418 37199413 36799424 36489459
            36119548 35819672 35699739 35859772 36039763
            36239687 36759609 37139581 37379549 37509502