MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0239
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
655 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IN & NORTHERN KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 192254Z - 200204Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW TRAINING CHARACTER ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY.  THE BROADER HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN
THIS AREA SHOULD END BY 02Z.

DISCUSSION...AN EAST-WEST BAND OF CONVECTION LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN AND NORTHERN KY NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.  A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE IS LEAVING THE
SCENE, MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OH AT THIS TIME.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5"+ EXIST IN THIS REGION.  CONVERGENT INFLOW AT 850
HPA OF 25-30 KTS REMAINS FOCUSED HERE.  AS CIN HAS DEVELOPED, THIS
IS DRAWING IN 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE INTO THE REGION.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER AFIELD, LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD
SHRINK THE AREA OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
DESPITE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINING AVAILABLE.  THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN TOO FAR NORTH THUS FAR, SUPPORTS AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  HOURLY RAIN RATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 2" OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS,
MAINTAINING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39218293 38848231 38078262 37868423 37808707
            38138777 38798593