Graphic for MPD #0278

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0278
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1201 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 280400Z - 280800Z

OVERVIEW...ONGOING TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS...RAISING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW INTO A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  PWS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR ITS INTERSECTION WITH
THE DRYLINE.  THE LATEST RAP SHOWS 850MB 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE PERSISTING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.  THIS
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AFFORDED IN PART BY
FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  A NUMBER OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS
ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS REGION. 
WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION...THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL AND
THE 12Z UTC NSSL-WRF...WHICH BOTH APPEAR TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...INDICATE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES THROUGH 10Z.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36039535 35159475 34299543 34019697 34079872
            34529793 35359662


Last Updated: 1201 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017