MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0290
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN NM...FAR WEST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 020125Z - 020425Z

SUMMARY...CELL MERGERS AND SHORT TERM TRAINING OVER PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX COULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 IR LOOP SHOWED BURSTS
OF COLD CLOUD TOPS (BETWEEN -65 TO -70 C) OVER SOUTHERNMOST NM AND
FAR WEST TX. THE CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE (THE 00Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED SBACPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG). WHILE THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME
LOW LEVEL CIN DEVELOPING OVER FAR WEST TX...00Z SOUNDINGS AT DRT
AND EPZ SHOWED AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
BURSTS OF COLD CONVECTION.

A CLOSING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL PROVIDE
INCREASED DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND FAR WEST TX.
THE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT COULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

A 15 TO 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
1.00/1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS WEST TX. WHILE THE
CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED THIS EVENING...THE KMAF RADAR SHOWED
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING...AS WELL AS THE
HAIL INDICATOR ON THE KMAF HCA PRODUCT (AS WELL AS THE RADAR
PRESENTATION)...THERE IS LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATION EARLY THIS
EVENING.

THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST TX... BUT NOT ON THE CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM.
BASED MAINLY ON THAT SOLUTION...LOCAL 2.00 TO 3.00 INCH RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA. CELL
MERGERS AND SHORT TERM TRAINING WOULD BE NEEDED TO INITIATE NEW
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32190583 32130469 31900392 30610206 29670106
            28730182 29410420 30600514 31480612