MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0293
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1112 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN CO...FAR WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 030310Z - 030630Z

SUMMARY...SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY STILL
SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVELY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER EASTERN CO WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW-MOVING AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FOSTERED BY THE SLOW
APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST WY DOWN
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO...AND THIS IS SHOWING UP RATHER WELL IN THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 7.3 MICRON/LOW LEVEL WV CHANNEL. THE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO INTERACT ALSO WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT REASONABLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS INTO THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO LINGER A
BIT WITH A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL
CIN/BOUNDARY STABILIZATION INCREASES. HOWEVER...SHORT-TERM
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED AND WITH THE
SLOW CELL MOTION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...STORM TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS
2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE EXPECTED GOING THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z. SO THE
THREAT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. THE HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS A WANING OF
ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39890158 39710112 39400097 38800114 38110207
            37910285 38060333 38440345 38780323 39160258
            39610215