MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0303
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
609 AM EDT TUE JUN 06 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...FL BIG BEND

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 061005Z - 061605Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF
OVER 2 INCHES/HR...SLOW CELL MOTION AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION MAY
CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/VORT CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE FOCUSING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
FOSTER STRONGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHERN AL EAST ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE FL
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE FL PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DIFFLUENT AND
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE...AREAS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND OVER TOWARD THE FL BIG BEND MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CONCENTRATED BANDS OF TRAINING CONVECTION BEGIN TO SET UP. THERE
IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY NOTED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WHICH SHOULD IN TIME BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPANSIVE IN COVERAGE GIVEN THE INCREASING 
BROAD-SCALE DYNAMIC AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITHIN A
HIGHLY-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS OF 2-2.25
INCHES...AND MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO OVER 1000 J/KG BY LATER THIS
MORNING NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES GRADUALLY TO
INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES/HR AND WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST HREFV2 MEAN SUGGESTS AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5+ INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE SOME
RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MOB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31008580 30848445 30748392 30618322 30308249
            29748207 29008217 28728254 29128318 29578364
            29778433 29608508 29978586 30028613 30228669
            30308725 30618743 30978711