MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0306
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 061714Z - 062114Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE
TRAINING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.  WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3" REMAINING POSSIBLE, AND TOTALS OF 5-14"
SO FAR, FLOODING APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE BUILDING
NORTHEAST OF A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE OVSERVATIONS AT 17Z REVEAL A
WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR ITS CORE IN THE LOWER 70S.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ~30 KTS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS 30-40 KTS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ~2.25".

THE 12Z GFS-BASED GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX SHOWS INCREASING VALUES
THROUGH 21Z IN THIS REGION, IMPLYING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS.  THE 12Z CANADIAN
REGIONAL MODEL APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY THE BEST AT
THIS TIME, INCLUDING FUTURE EXPECTATIONS.  ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAIN
RATES HAVE BEEN UP TO 2" AS OF LATE PER RADAR IMAGERY, HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 3" REMAIN POSSIBLE.  WITH A BROAD AREA OF 5-14" OF
RAIN TOTALS THUS FAR PER SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
OBSERVATIONS, AN ADDITIONAL 3-5" COULD EXACERBATE HEAVY RAIN
ISSUES WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   26748106 26677999 26118004 25738016 25618093
            25638140 25958180 26658206