MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0307
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
532 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 062130Z - 070330Z

SUMMARY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...WITH TRAINING
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH
AND EAST IN ITS WAKE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AHEAD OF
AN UPSTREAM WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FL.  THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW
CHANNELS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA.  THE 19 UTC RAP SHOWS 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 30-50 KTS AND PWS OF 1.75-2.25 INCHES PERSISTING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.  MUCAPES ARE GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE RAP SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES THROUGH 03 UTC. 
THESE AMOUNTS MAY POSE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBANIZED
AREAS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS
THEN PUSHING SOUTH.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28798084 28278054 27088006 26348018 25668112
            25788173 26188204 26578230 26778222 27388130