MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0310
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1129 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 071528Z - 072128Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HOURLY RAIN RATES
UP TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5".  FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY OVER SATURATED SOILS AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A TRAINING BAND OF CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO SET UP
SOUTH OF SARASOTA AT THIS TIME WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
CONVERGENCE WHICH EXTENDS OUT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.9" PER MORNING
SOUNDINGS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS CONVERGENT OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 30-40 KTS.  MLCAPES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ~2000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ~35 KTS WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

ONSHORE, SKIES ARE BECOMING SUNNY AROUND NAPLES/MARCO ISLAND WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW 1000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE TO BUILD BETWEEN NOW AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE ADVERTISED THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE LINE IN CENTRAL FL WOULD LAY DOWN
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FL -- WHICH COULD BE HAPPENING NOW NEAR
SARASOTA -- WITH MESOSCALE WAVES EVENTUALLY FORMING ALONG IT TO
PUSH IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURATED AREAS FROM MONDAY AND
TUESDAY'S HEAVY RAINS.  FORWARD PROPAGATION OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ~30 KTS IS EXPECTED.  WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" ANTICIPATED, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP
TO 5" OF RAIN TO FALL LOCALLY, FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE IN
URBAN AREAS AND OVER SATURATED SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   27788180 27708099 27248017 26528014 25948141
            25798178 25918192 26388223 27018266 27398248