MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0312
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
129 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 090530Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...FAVORABLY ORIENTED CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD AND/OR TRAIN
OVER LOCAL MINIMA OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES POSING FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. 

DISCUSSION...RECENT GOES-16 EIR AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS COOLING
TOPS BREAKING THROUGH EASTERN CIRRUS CANOPY OF SOUTHWARD SINKING
MCS.  STRONG LLJ IS FEEDING FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE MCS WITH
850MB SPEED MAX FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAP ROCK.  ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ WINDS FALL OFF TO 15-20KTS AND 7H
WINDS FROM LATENT HEAT RELEASE/COLD POOL FROM THE MCS HAVE VEERED
WINDS TO THE WEST MAXIMIZING FURTHER MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 
ADDITIONALLY...TPW ANALYSIS SHOWS Q-AXIS IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ WITH TPWS REACHING 1.4-1.5" IN THE
VICINITY OF CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES
(1.5"/HR) 

GOES-E AMV AND RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS W
OK AS AT THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING SYNOPTIC TROF/SE SIDE OF
NARROW AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN HIGH PLAINS...THIS FAVORS THE CURRENT
ORIENTATION OF THE DEVELOPING LINE FROM NE ROGER MILLS/SE ELLIS
COUNTY TO COMANCHE.    ADDITIONALLY LOCALIZED SPEED MAX/ENTRANCE
REGION UPSTREAM SUPPORTS SOME BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ON THE
LINE...WHILE CLOUD BEARING WINDS ARE NW-SE AT 15KTS SUPPORTING A
CORRIDOR FOR TRAINING AS WELL.  PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT DRIFT ESEWARD WITH TIME.  TO MAKE MATTERS A BIT MORE
CONCERNING...LOCAL FFG VALUES ARE LOWER WITH 1HR VALUES JUST ABOVE
EXPECTED RATES (1.6-2.0) BUT 3HR FROM 2-2.5" ARE POSSIBLE TO BE
LOCALLY ECLIPSED.

00Z HI-RES WRF CAMS SUCH AS THE ARW/NMMB ARE QUITE BULLISH
SUGGESTING LOCAL BULLS-EYES IN EXCESS OF 5" THROUGH 12Z...WHICH
SEEMS A BIT DRAMATIC THOUGH SHOW GOOD PLACEMENT.  MORE REALISTIC
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE HRRR/EXP. HRRR AND NAM-CONEST SUGGESTING
2-3" WITH ISOLATED 4" AMOUNTS BUT ARE GENERALLY DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36339902 35359805 34489773 34149794 34129853
            34399908 35149948 36029973