MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0324
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO & NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 151226Z - 151626Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY SHOWING TRAINING CHARACTERISTICS
HAS LED TO LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO SO FAR.  THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, PRODUCING HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 1.75" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4".

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO FORWARD PROPAGATE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS CONVERGENT AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS
ADVECTING IN MUCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, WHICH HAS
CAUSED SOME BACK BUILDING.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
HELPING WITH THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  AGEOSTROPHIC OUTWARD
FLOW FROM A MESOHIGH IN SOUTHERN MO IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS IS
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WHICH COULD KEEP THIS AREA OF
CELL TRAINING/CONVECTION ACTIVE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS.  A NORTHWARD ADJUSTED VERSION OF THE
06Z NAM CONEST IS HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY BEST; THE 06Z CANADIAN
REGIONAL SIGNAL WAS IN THE RIGHT SPOT BUT A BIT TOO SMALL.  BY
16Z, THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, SO BELIEVE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING IN THIS REGION AROUND THAT TIME. 
UNTIL THEN, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4"
CAN BE EXPECTED, WHICH WOULD THREATEN THE THREE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37809465 37159314 35759238 35379362 36409452