MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0326
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

AREAS AFFECTED......NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 151945Z - 160145Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTENING
IN SOUTHEAST INFLOW ARE STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS.
HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH
CENTRAL KS.  THE REGION STARTED DRY MIDDAY BUT CONTINUING SFC-700
MB MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INFLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM IN THE 18Z TOPEKA SOUNDING TO ALLOW
GREATER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AREA IS SHOWN AS POSSIBLE AND NOT LIKELY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH 2.5-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  THE 2 WRF
ARW RUNS FROM EMC AND THE WRF FROM NSSL SHOW 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THE 6 HOURS ENDING AT 00Z.

GFS MODEL DERIVED CORFIDI PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOW AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST REDEVELOPMENT AND FORWARD MOTION, WITH ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GRAPHIC HERE SHOWS THE AXIS OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPES ALREADY 4-5 KJ/KG CAPE.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39369783 39269681 38649585 38059572 37669612
            37579691 37779773 37959806 38219836 38489889
            38859900 39249863