MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0327
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST KS TO NORTHEAST OK...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 160123Z - 160723Z

SUMMARY...MERGING OUTFLOWS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO NORTHEAST OK IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOURLY
RAIN RATES OF 1- 2", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3" ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES IN ADVANCE
OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE IN A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET AND
AREA OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES TO 5000 J/KG. THE PERSISTENT
CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY MERGED WITH ANOTHER THAT CROSSED FROM OK INTO
KS AND OUTFLOWS FROM THE 2 CLUSTERS COMBINING TO ENHANCE LOW ELVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS IN EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN OK SHOW LOW-MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PLUS STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM. 

THE AREA IS SHOWN AS POSSIBLE AND NOT LIKELY DUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT NUDGES UP TO 3-4 INCHES IN 3
HOURS IN NORTHEAST OK.  THE 2 WRF ARW RUNS FROM EMC AND THE NSSL
WRF SHOW 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 6 HOURS ENDING AT 06Z.  BRIEF
TRAINING AND ENHANCED RATES WHERE OUTFLOW MERGERS OCCUR COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

GFS MODEL DERIVED CORFIDI PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOW AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST REDEVELOPMENT AND FORWARD MOTION, WITH ACTIVITY
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTHEAST OK LATER THIS EVENING.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37559559 37359450 36389422 35909503 35959632
            36179704 36329750 36869794 37359780 37529703