MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0331
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
547 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 170945Z - 171345Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR MAY POSE A FEW
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MO THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCC CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE EXPERIENCING A MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...30-40 KT. MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAS
BEEN AVERAGING ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...PARALLEL TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE WESTERN FLANK. SPC MESOANALYSES AND RAP
ANALYSES SHOW SUBSTANTIAL MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN KS AND SOUTHWESTERN MO.

850 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 KT OVER SOUTHEASTERN KS AND
NORTHEASTERN OK HAVE SHOWN WEAKENING AND SOME VEERING AS SEEN IN
THE VAD WIND PLOTS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BY RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THE REGENERATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WHICH WOULD TRACK AND TRAIN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS AND SOUTHWESTERN MO. KEAX RADAR HAS SHOWN
RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER DOUGLAS AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
AT 0930Z. WHILE THE OVERALL TREND IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST
HOUR...A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS AND SOUTHWESTERN MO
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
PERSISTING FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38699492 38579404 37589325 36889284 36449312
            36379399 36889478 37449516 38229531