MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0346
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL SC AND SRN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 200344Z - 200744Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING CORES OF HEAVY RAIN...2-3 IN/HR...SHOULD
CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS FROM CNTRL GA TO SRN NC.
THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 03Z SHOWED A NARROW AND
BROKEN LINE OF HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM CNTRL GA...JUST SOUTHEAST
OF ATL...INTO CNTRL NC AND BEYOND. 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS FROM
FFC...CHS AND GSO INDICATED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 13 TO 14 KFT
ALONG WITH 2000-3000+ J/KG CAPE. MRMS ISOTHERMAL REFLECTIVITY HAD
INDICATED SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES UNDERWAY WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS AND AT LEAST ONE GAUGE OBSERVATION IN MORGAN COUNTY GA
CONFIRMED DUAL POL ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR. CLOUD
BEARING LAYER MEAN FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...ABOUT 10-20
KT...TOWARD THE ENE AND THE LINE IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
STRETCHED ACROSS WRN NC INTO NRN GA AT 03Z. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS
ABOUT 20 KT IN GA AND 25 TO 30 KT IN SC PER AREA VAD WIND PROFILE
PLOTS OF 925 MB AND 850 MB.

WHILE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL TEND TO REDUCE
CAPE INTO THE NIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
IN GA BY 06Z...REMAINING CAPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CORES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SC AND NC. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACROSS SC AND NC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINES OF TRAINING CONVECTION
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO
BE GETTING RID OF THE CONVECTIVE CORES TOO QUICKLY...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35378018 35127907 34417977 33488170 33278379
            33938375 34948157