MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0353...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
733 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017

CORRECTED FOR VALID END DATE/TIME

AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AL...WESTERN/CENTRAL GA...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 211810Z - 212230Z

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS
OVER THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS AREAS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND UP
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL AND PARTS OF WESTERN GA. THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED AROUND THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF T.S.
CINDY'S CIRCULATION WHERE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITHIN CONFLUENT LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION PERSISTS. THIS IS FOSTERING PWATS OF 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES WHICH HAS BEEN AIDING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES/HR WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE 12Z HIRES GUIDANCE LED BY THE ARW/NMMB AND NSSL-WRF SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND
AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT BETTER HANDLE OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND AT LEAST SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN
GA...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT AND THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME POCKETS OF
INTENSE RAINFALL LOCALLY HERE AS WELL.

OVERALL...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER AREAS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL. SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND UP ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OR AT LEAST
ENHANCED RUNOFF.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34178637 34138473 33778371 33338332 32718329
            32058386 31418465 30408522 30068560 30278657
            30318702 30398754 30668798 31538839 32548836
            33158817 33808754