MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0362
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST LA & SOUTHERN MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 220848Z - 221448Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF LA INTO SOUTHERN MS.  HOURLY
RAIN RATES TO 1.75", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3", ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRENGTHENING NEAR A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOST OBVIOUS SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND, WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY WAVERING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE TROUGH
AXIS.  AN AREA OF DARKENING ALOFT/A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH IS HELPING TO LEAD TO CLOUD TOP COOLING IN
THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25" LIE ACROSS THE
REGION.  INSTABILITY TRENDS ARE SOMEWHAT UPWARD, WITH MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 40 KTS, SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.

THE 00Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUPPORT AN INCREASING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE MORNING HOURS.  RADAR ESTIMATES AS
OF LATE ARE APPROACHING 1.5"/HOUR OVER A REGION THAT HAS RECEIVED
3-7" FROM CINDY THUS FAR.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 3" THROUGH 15Z, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32628861 31928847 30368838 29248860 28928926
            29318953 30568968 32428962