MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0375
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 230656Z - 231156Z

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3"
THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN EAST-CENTRAL IA IS HELPING
TO FOCUS SHORT PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING IN SOUTHERN WI AT THIS
TIME.  A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN IA IS FOSTERING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.75".  INFLOW OF 25-30 KTS AT 850 HPA IS BRINGING IN MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG INTO THE REGION.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
25-35 KTS ALONG WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
HEIGHT ARE LEADING TO THE OCCASIONAL TRAINING BANDS.

WITH TIME, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF
THE POOL AND IN COMBINATION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO CHICAGO SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO NORTHEAST IL.  WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT BANDS OF CELL
TRAINING ANTICIPATED, HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
TO 3" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WHICH WOULD CHALLENGE THE
RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43168795 42258768 41348740 41938946 42429072
            43098936