MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0376
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 230753Z - 231353Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WHICH BEGAN NEAR THE CENTER AN HOUR
AGO AND HAS SINCE EXPANDED INTO ITS SOUTHEAST AR.  THIS IS SEEN
BOTH ON RADAR IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS STARTING
TO COOL ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 2-2.4"
PER RECENT GPS DATA.  MUCAPE VALUES ARE 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 25 KTS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS CONVERGENT AT
25-50 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, WHICH MODESTLY EXCEEDS THE MEAN
850-400 HPA WIND.

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM LITTLE ROCK AR SHOWED A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH COULD CAUSE EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH TIME EVEN
WITH INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS RANGE.  THE FLOW IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT IN THIS REGION, WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE BULK SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SHORT BOUTS OF CELL TRAINING. 
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 5" TOTALS, THOUGH
THEY DISAGREE AS TO EXACTLY WHERE.  THE 18Z AND 00Z SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING THE THREE HOURLY FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SHOW SPOTS OF 50%+ CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE AS
FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST IN.  AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEGUN
TO SET UP IN THIS MORE NORTHERLY AREA, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. 
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE HERE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...JAN...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...
SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39078832 38588678 36638822 34658971 33299112
            33449265 35019282 37299142