MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0379
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
930 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LA...SOUTHEAST AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MS...WESTERN TN...FAR WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 231320Z - 231900Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH T.D.
CINDY THIS MORNING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED IN A SW/NE
FASHION...WITH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CONFLUENCE/TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION MADE A RATHER
STRONG COMEBACK OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AS IT WAS CROSSING EASTERN AR AND IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS WELL
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CONFLUENCE ZONE DOWN INTO
NORTHERN LA.

EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SOME
RATHER COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE OF A FAIR DEGREE
OF ORGANIZATION AND VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY MOIST VERTICAL COLUMN. GPS-DERIVED PWATS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 2.4 TO 2.6 INCHES WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED HOURLY RATES. IN
FACT...THE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LA HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

CINDY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL TEND TO
MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AT LEAST OVER
TN...HOWEVER...THE TRAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST AR AND
NORTHERN LA WILL TEND TO HANG UP MORE...AND BE A FOCUS FOR
REPEATING/TRAINING OF CONVECTION.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WHICH IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHEAST LA...FAR SOUTHEAST
AR AND NORTHWEST MS MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 5
INCHES GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL TRAINING.
GIVEN THESE AMOUNTS...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS CINDY BEGINS TO MOVE WELL
OFF TO THE EAST.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37218816 37008737 36278729 35448764 34668808
            33848861 32588994 31799123 31509261 31969307
            32859284 33799187 34619106 35409052 36319003
            37088900