MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0383
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...CENTRAL/EASTERN
KY....CENTRAL/WESTERN WV...EXTREME SOUTHWEST PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 231915Z - 240115Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FARTHER EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS T.D. CINDY RAPIDLY MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST.
EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND A LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WILL CONCENTRATE FARTHER EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF KY/WV...SOUTHERN OH AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
PA. ALL OF THIS IS BEING FACILITATED BY THE INTERACTION OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE ADVANCE OF T.D. CINDY ACROSS NORTHWEST TN AND ITS
MASSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE OH/TN
VALLEY REGION.

THE LATEST HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
SLOW TO ADVANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CONNECTED TO THE FACT THAT T.D. CINDY APPEARS
TO BE ACCELERATING A BIT MORE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING. HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF
THIS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS T.D. CINDY TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES AND WITH
THE INCREASED INSTABILITY..COLD TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES TO OVER 2.5 INCHES/HR IS LIKELY. STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO FACILITATE THE GREATER RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY...AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOSE OF A 50+
KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AIMING UP ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN KY AHEAD OF T.D. CINDY.

EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 00Z TO BE AS HIGH AS 3 TO 5
INCHES..WITH SOME ISOLATED 6+ INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE TOTALS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT...AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN KY AND CENTRAL/WESTERN WV INVOLVING THE
CUMBERLAND/ALLEGHENY PLATEAU REGION AND WEST-FACING UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40257988 39187975 37648141 36828346 36548578
            36828751 37768735 38738603 39538432 40228182