MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0385...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

CORRECTED FOR RESEND DUE TO DUPLICATE MPD 385

AREAS AFFECTED...S PA...EXT W MD...SE NY...N NJ...SW CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 232230Z - 240300Z

SUMMARY...CORRIDOR OF CONFLUENT DEEP MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE
IMPULSES PRODUCING EMBEDDED CONVECTION LINES CAPABLE OF HIGH RAIN
RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST AND RADAR MOSAIC DENOTE CORRIDOR OF
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT DEEP MOISTURE FLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CINDY AS WELL AS THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT TO ITS EAST CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS.  AHEAD OF THE
MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND IS ADVANCING INTO E PA/N NJ TAKING AIM AT THE
URBAN CORRIDOR BETWEEN TRENTON AND NYC.  WEAK TRAILING TROF FROM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING S NY ATTM IS PROVIDING MODEST DPVA
ASCENT WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NOSE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST CHARACTERIZED BY TPWS AOA 2.0" AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THIS CLUSTER.  WITHOUT STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...UPDRAFTS ARE A BIT MORE GENTLE WITH LESS
FLUX TO SUPPORT RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
STEERING FLOW ALLOWS FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REPEAT
ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE FFG VALUES ARE BELOW
1.5"/1HR.

FURTHER WEST...THROUGH RECENT WEAKENING TRENDS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN
GOES-VIS AND LIGHTNING DATA...MULTIPLE BOUTS OF MODEST RAINFALL
WITHIN LARGER SYNOPTICLY FORCED ASCENT REGION APPROACHES WITH
BETTER DIVERGENCE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT/CONVERGENCE. 
WITH SOME REMAINING INSTABILITY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WILL KEEP FLOODING
THREAT HIGHER...THOUGH THIS COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SPORADIC.
EITHER WAY...MODEST RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF MAIN CORE OF CINDY'S
REMNANTS WILL FURTHER SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING THREAT
LATER TONIGHT. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41787500 41767340 40757327 40007440 39747643
            39517897 39497941 40168000 40807972 41227772