MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0387...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
956 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

CORRECTED FOR MISLABLED E KY IN AREA AFFECTED

AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SOUTHWEST PA...SOUTHEAST
OH...EASTERN KY...NORTHWEST VA...WESTERN MD

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 240130Z - 240630Z

SUMMARY...CINDY NEARLY FULLY ABSORBED INTO BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM...REMAINING MOISTURE FLUX TO RING OUT ACROSS TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUING FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST WV LOOP SHOWS EVER EXPANDING AND COOLING
BAROCLINIC SHIELD WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT POLAR JET
OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS SOUTHEAST EXPANSION APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCED BY UPSCALE OUTFLOW FROM MID-LEVEL LATENT HEAT RELEASE AS
CONVECTIVE TOWERS FLATTEN TO MORE SLANTED ISENTROPIC ASCENT. 
RADAR MOSAIC ALSO SHOWS THIS TRANSITIONING OCCURRING AS
STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH INCREASING NWLY
FLOW CONVERGING WITH FLATTENING SWLY FLOW AS THE INNER CORE OF
CINDY FILLS IN THE LOW LEVELS.  THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE CONVECTION
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED AND WILL
LIKELY BROADEN THE OVERALL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION
FROM SE OH INTO SW PA/N WV/W MD WHILE COMBINATION WITH
LINGERING/WEAKENING DEEP WARM CONVEYOR BELT (PER CIRA LAYERED TPW
PRODUCTS) ORIENTS SW TO NE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN RANGE OVER
CENTRAL WV. AS SUCH TPWS OVER 2.25" ADVECTED ON 40-45KTS AT 850MB
DIRECTLY INTO TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT TROPICAL
SHOWERS (NO LIGHTNING) YET RATES UP TO 1.0"/HR OVER A LARGE AREA
WHERE FFGS WOULD BE ECLIPSED LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
AND BROAD SWATH OF 1-3" TOTALS GIVEN FAIRLY MODEST TRANSLATION
SPEEDS.  AS SUCH FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40477900 40417768 40057744 39397798 38327851
            37837956 37388073 37268162 37558319 38778339
            39808199 40228081