MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0395
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM & THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 250754Z - 251403Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION.  HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 1.75" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
TO 3" ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL NM AT THIS TIME WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH AN OUTFLOW
JET FROM A DYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARE AIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN THE THERMAL FIELD AND RADAR
IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FDX/CANNON AIR FORCE BASE NM
OVERNIGHT.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS SLOWLY VEERING FROM MORE EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH WINDS AT 850 HPA OF 25 KTS PER VAD WIND
PROFILES, MORE THAN DOUBLE THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS 30-50 KTS.  THIS UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN LEADING TO
OCCASIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
OVERNIGHT.  GPS VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER HAVE COME UP 0.2"
FROM THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING, WHICH SHOWED SATURATION BELOW 650 HPA,
NOW LYING BETWEEN 1.1-1.4". 

AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILE  SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE
MORE EFFECTIVE USE OF THE MUCAPE VALUES TO THE SOUTH, WHICH ARE IN
THE 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE 850
HPA WIND BECOMES MORE NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INCREASES
WITH TIME.  A BUILDING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL COULD EVENTUALLY
INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT IT A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND FARTHER SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CAP ROCK INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST PERMIAN BASIN.  CELL
TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING ARE BOTH POSSIBLE, WITH THE BULK SHEAR
HELPING TO ORGANIZE BANDS AND POSSIBLY A MESOCYCLONE OR TWO.  CELL
MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS WILL INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IN A STORM RELATIVE SENSE.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO BREACH 1.5", HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75" ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN THE 3" RANGE, WHICH WOULD SLIGHTLY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH RECEIVED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36860436 36350149 34640027 33410067 33730260
            35100441