MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0397
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
414 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN
AL...SOUTHEAST SC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 252013Z - 260013Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CLUSTERS OF MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS IN A
VERY MOIST TROPOSPHERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  THIS MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAS BEEN
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 
DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING MULTIPLE CELL MERGERS AND VERY SLOW
OVERALL MOVEMENT.  THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING PWS
ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.

THE LATEST HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS
OF THIS REGION.  GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THIS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.  HRRR TIME LAG ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO SHOWING HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF 1 HOUR QPF EXCEEDING 1 INCH.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33927944 33877881 33107892 32637936 31937999
            31368053 30918125 30758200 30198348 29698430
            29498512 29778555 30078593 30288662 30208786
            30868779 31198710 31418581 31688476 31948374
            32318273 32728177 33488027