MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0403
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...MULTISTATE JUNCTION OF CO, KS, OK, TX, & NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 270221Z - 270621Z

SUMMARY...	THUNDERSTORMS ARE LEADING TO HOURLY RAIN RATES OF
~2".  LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO CELL
MERGERS AND BACKBUILDING.

DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CO APPEARS TO BE THE
FOCUS OF A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO NORTHEAST NM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ~1" WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH IS
SUPPORTIVE OF THE 2" AN HOUR RAIN RATES SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY. 
STORMS APPEAR TO BE BACKBUILDING INTO AN INSTABILITY POOL OF ~2000
J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN CO/NM BORDER.  OTHER ACTIVITY IS FORMING IN
SOUTHWEST KS ELEVATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE THERMAL
BOUNDARY.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 15-20 KTS, WHICH IS AT LEAST
DOUBLE THE VALUE OF THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.  BULK SHEAR OF
25-40 KTS EXISTS HERE, WHICH LIKELY LED TO THE MESOCYCLONE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CO.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING CONVECTION IN
THIS AREA, WITH THE GUIDANCE MORE FAVORING SOUTHWEST KS (THOUGH
SEVERAL HOURS FROM NOW) OVER ANY ACTIVITY OVER FAR NORTHEAST
NM/SOUTHEAST CO.  THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
4+ HOURS OF ISSUES HERE ON ITS OWN.  THERE IS A RISK THAT BUILDING
CIN WILL CAUSE ACTIVITY TO ELEVATE NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY MERGE
WITH ACTIVITY FORMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS PRESENTLY.  CELL MERGERS
FROM THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOCYCLONE ALONG WITH BACKBUILDING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR HOURLY RAIN
RATES TO 2" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4".  UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION KEPT THE HORIZON OF THE MPD AT FOUR HOURS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38720348 38050237 37590138 37010080 36300189
            36240311 36670383 37110410 37660430 38110394
            38590401