MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0430
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
931 AM EDT SUN JUL 02 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 021330Z - 021630Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WIND PROFILES FAVOR VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS FORMING IN AN 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
VERY ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS...BUT INTENSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 4
INCHES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...REALLY A SMALL SCALE THREAT HERE IN PARTS OF
KANSAS...BUT THE CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL APPEAR
RIPE THROUGH ABOUT 17 TO 18Z WHEN THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM WILL FADE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL HAVE DISRUPTED
THE INFLOW. UNTIL THEN...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENTS AT 850-700 MB WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY.
MEAN FLOW IS EAST AT 10-15 KNOTS...AND ANY SMALL MCVS WILL BE
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH SOME UPDRAFT
ROTATION / DEVIANT MOTION...AND A PREFERENCE FOR NEW UPDRAFT
GROWTH BACK TOWARD THE INFLOW...NET MOTION MAY BE ONLY 5
KNOTS...AS SUGGESTED BY BUNKERS MOTION VECTORS FOR RIGHT
MOVERS...AND OBSERVED THIS MORNING NEAR HAYS.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE ONLY MILDLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INFLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE BEST MODEL
DEPICTION WAS IN MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS...WHICH KEEP THE BULK OF
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT NEAR I-70 AND NORTH OF WICHITA ALONG I-35.
INFLOW SPEEDS ARE LESS AROUND WICHITA...BUT WITH SOME CONVECTION
PERCOLATING THERE AT 13Z...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING THAT FAR SOUTH. WHEREVER CELLS MERGE AND
PERSIST...KDDC DUAL POL ESTIMATES HAD ALREADY EXCEEDED 5 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT DRY...AND THE RADAR
ESTIMATES MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT GIVEN THE SLOW CELL
MOTION...ISOLATED TOTALS OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES HAD LIKELY OCCURRED
NORTH OF HAYS...AND COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39679894 39119728 37969694 37399740 37729847
            38649962 39349987