MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0436
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
551 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OK...FAR NORTHEAST TX... SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031000Z - 031300Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN ARC OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEAST OK INTO FAR NORTHEAST TX AND A PORTION
OF SOUTHWEST AR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WAS MOVING
ALONG AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK AND SOUTHWEST AR...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH 1.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE CONVECTION WAS FOLLOWING ALONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW BEHIND A LONG-LIVED MCV CROSSING FROM
EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR.

THE OVERALL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WANING AS THE REMAINING INSTABILITY
BECOMES CONSUMED. HOWEVER...THE KINX RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES STILL NEAR 1.50 INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION WAS TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED BETWEEN 3.00 AND
4.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL (BASED ON THE MOST RECENT KTLX RADAR
ESTIMATE).

THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD 13Z AS THE
INSTABILITY WANES AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS MOVES
EASTWARD. THE MOST RECENT HRRR SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE CONVECTION...
BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE TOO HIGH.

BASED MAINLY ON RADAR TRENDS...ANOTHER 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION BEFORE IT DIMINISHES TO
THE POINT WHERE IT CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   34539566 34259452 33869389 33199364 33029414
            33089472 33779630 34249637