MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0440
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 040230Z - 040530Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL OK BECOMING MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED...AND THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE WANING.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCV IS TRACKING TOWARD AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER
THIS EVENING. THE KINK RADAR SHOWED BETWEEN 3.50 AND 4.50 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY OK.

THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 CLEAN IR CHANNEL SHOWED BURSTS OF COLD
TOPPED CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...IN AN AXIS OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 1.80 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (THE 00Z KLMN SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2.10 INCHES). THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST OK THROUGH
AT LEAST THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME.

MUCH OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE LATEST
HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) WAS NOT HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WELL...AND DOES NOT COVER THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT GOT HIT HARD EARLIER.

THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED ACROSS NORTHEAST
OK..THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE TOWARD 06Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36959611 36949538 36849499 36469470 35919460
            35619524 35589625 35699685 36119768 36719761
            36889754