MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0443
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO... NRN AND CNTRL
AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 041758Z - 042358Z

SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM THE OZARKS INTO CNTRL AND NRN ARKANSAS. MAXIMUM RAINFALL
THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...17Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA VAD WIND PLOTS
SHOWED A SLOW MOVING LOW-MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE ERN
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION...PER RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSES...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED SLOW MOVING CONVECTION JUST
EAST OF THE LOW OVER SERN MISSOURI AND NWRN ARKANSAS. CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WEAK INSTABILITY BUT HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE OZRAKS INTO CNTRL AND SRN
ARKANSAS WHICH ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM 1.75 TO 2.00+ INCHES
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LZK AND SGF ALONG WITH RECENT GPS SITE
MEASUREMENTS.

THE LOW CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE ERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN SLOW MOVING WHILE ELONGATING TOWARD THE SE
THROUGH 00Z WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS NEAR THE LOW SUPPORTING BRIEF
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE
SENSITIVE REGIONS OF THE OZARKS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS ESTIMATED TO
RANGE FROM 500 TO 2000+ J/KG PER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12Z LZK
SOUNDING FOR 17Z AREA OBSERVATIONS. WHILE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM A CONSENSUS OF 12Z HI-RES MODELS SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS
CNTRL ARKANSAS STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT TERM TRAINING WITHIN A RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ENVIRONMENT AND WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS BETWEEN 13-14 KFT SUPPORTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...MEG...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38129446 37969384 37409339 36969249 36679166
            36359103 35539044 34509114 34519295 35669384
            36109447 36499520 36799547 37399557 37879515