MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0460
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN MI...NORTHERN OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 101240Z - 101840Z

SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF
AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MI AND
NORTHERN IN/OH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 12Z A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
WHILE RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND WITH THE COMPLEX...HAVE SEEN SOME INTENSIFICATION ON THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHERN MI
OVER RECENT HOURS. A LEAD AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF OH. THESE STORMS OVER OH HAVE ONLY BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST WITH TIME...DROPPING LOCALIZED 1-2" TOTALS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX FROM SOUTEHRN MI INTO NORTHERN IN AND WESTERN OH.
IN GENERAL THE ENTIRE COMPLEX SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL
KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FROM GETTING TOO EXTREME. HOWEVER ANTICIPATE
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME CELL MERGERS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WHICH WILL LOCALLY INCREASE THE DURATION OF
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.

THUS ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF 1-3" OF
RAINFALL FROM SOUTHERN MI INTO NORTHERN IN/OH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER RAINFALL
TOTALS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY STILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-2" OF
RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS LEAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   42308541 42258439 41848280 40968181 40238213
            40088315 40308454 40758578 41758582