MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0478
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...EXT SOUTHEAST NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 130515Z - 131015Z

SUMMARY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH CONVECTION REPEATING
ACROSS SATURATED GROUNDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING CONTINUING FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DENOTES A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR FAR
NW MO AT INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACTING  AS AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  A STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER
NW KS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IS FURTHER ENHANCING NORTHWARD BULGE
OF WARM SECTOR AND STRONG SWLY WAA REGIME ACROSS KS ORTHONGANALLY
INTERSECTING THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND WITH SOLID MESO HIGH
ACROSS SE IA/NE MO....THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY STATIONARY.  AS SUCH
ASCENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION EXISTS WITH AN AMPLE POOL OF
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR HIGH THETA-E AIR (TDS IN LOW/MID 70S)
SUPPORTING CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG.  FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND MODEST MOISTURE FLUX SUPPORTS A RIBBON OF 1.75-2.0"
TPWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. 

CURRENTLY ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM LINN TO GENTRY COUNTY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY GIVEN RECENT 7-5H SUBTLE
TROF PASSAGE...ALLOW FOR SOME REPEATING TO OCCUR EVEN OVER AREAS
AFFECTED BY EARLIER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION LEADING TO SATURATED
SOILS OR SOME CASES ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS. 

AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE LEFT EDGE OF THE LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM FAR SE NEB/SW
IA THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING SLOWLY VEERING TO THE WEST BY
10-11Z...KEEPING THE FOCUS ACROSS S IA/N MO KEEPING THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-4"
POSSIBLE.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUITE
INCLUDING THE ARW/NMMB/NSSL-WRF AND RECENT HRRR AND EXP. HRRR
SOLUTIONS PROVIDING SOME ADDED CONFIDENCE.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41109554 40929371 40679256 40339158 39499213
            39909429 40369579 40689610