MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0491
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
724 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KANSAS...S MISSOURI...N ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 141123Z - 141623Z

SUMMARY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND A SURFACE FRONT ARE
ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES OF 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING VORTMAX OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ACTING TO AID DIVERGENCE OVER AN AREA OF ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  ANOTHER AREA OF SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2.2 INCHES EXIST HERE
PER RAP ANALYSES AND EARLY-MORNING GPS DATA.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS
20 TO 30 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG.  THE INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 2000
J/KG OR GREATER LATER THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL
FORECAST.

THE HI RES GUIDANCE HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HERE. 
THE LATEST HRRR, HRRRX, WRF NSSL, AND NAM CONEST ARE SUGGESTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED 3 INCH RAINFALL MAXIMA THROUGH 15Z,
WHILE THE ARW AND NMMB ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS. 
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE GIVEN THE VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT EXPECTED.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38419382 38039173 37279016 36259009 35869104
            35839277 35929505 36259628 36969687 37839662
            38359565