MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0539
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1232 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 230430Z - 231015Z

SUMMARY...QUICK 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD GENERATE A
FEW AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THE THREAT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 10Z.

DISCUSSION...KEAX RADAR AS OF 04Z SHOWED A FAIRLY SLOW MOVING
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN...RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS OF 2-3
IN/HR...LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO. WHILE THE
CLUSTER HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG OUTFLOWS AND SEVERE
WINDS...A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. A COMBINATION OF A
COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SET UP A WAVY EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF STL TO SOUTH OF ICT AS OF 04Z. DESPITE
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH AN ESTIMATED 3000-5000 J/KG AS OF 04Z
PER MODIFIED AREA SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z.

GENERAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
WRN MO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD BEARING
MEAN WINDS SHOWING 10-20 KT TOWARD THE EAST. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ALONG I-70. GIVEN 850-700 MB FLOW OF 20-30 KT FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...TRAINING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. IN ADDITION...THE
TAIL END OF A 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN IOWA...OUT AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BETWEEN 07-10Z. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS REGION WIDE...WHICH MAY BE MET OR
EXCEEDED GIVEN LARGE CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITHIN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF 2 INCHES.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39529004 39338891 38688865 38168923 37939005
            37769155 37899351 38229440 39259446 39489219