MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0546
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OHIO...SW PENNSYLVANIA...N WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 232324Z - 240324Z

SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH PERIODS OF
TRAINING WILL POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.  MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN.

DISCUSSION...2300Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.  RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
IS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED.  RAP ANALYSES AND GPS DATA INDICATE
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWS ON THE ORDER OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE.  THERE IS ALSO SOME SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVERHEAD WITH A 90KT JET STREAK JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRR EXPERIMENTAL ARE SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 11:30 PM. 
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS OVER OHIO, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD GET IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY
THAT TIME.  THE GREATEST FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS HAVING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES UNDER ONE INCH PER
ONE HOUR PERIOD.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40988309 40898117 40597998 40067953 39517946
            39057970 39008062 39268227 39418372 39768433
            40238455 40698415