MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0547
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
822 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240020Z - 240520Z

SUMMARY...A PROGRESSIVE EASTERLY WAVE AT 700 HPA WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO ENHANCED MONSOON CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS ARE INDICATING A BROKEN BAND
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS OF 00Z, WITH A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1-2 INCHES PER LATEST RAP MODEL
ANALYSIS.  MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS CONVECTION.  RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING COOLING AND EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS REGION.

THE MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE WITH
FUTURE RAINFALL GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP
TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IN A
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE MEAD AND PHOENIX.  THIS DEGREE OF RAINFALL
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS, NEAR BURN SCARS, AND WITHIN
AREA WASHES AND ARROYOS.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36961401 36881314 36011269 35121191 34301068
            33820918 33270816 31880746 31370788 31370946
            31411106 31801222 32811292 34621456 35961494
            36711458