MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0559
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AL...FAR WESTERN GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 251140Z - 251615Z

SUMMARY...VERY SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR DATA
SHOWS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL MCV MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AL AT THIS TIME. OVER THE LAST HOUR
THERE HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF COOLING CONVECTIVE
TOPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AL AND ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF TALLAPOOSA
COUNTY.

THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE MCV
AND IS EMBEDDED WITHING A CONFLUENT AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGIME AS WELL. THE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR 2.25
INCHES...AND WITH HIGHLY CONCENTRATED MOISTURE DEEP THROUGH THE
COLUMN...THE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY...AND PERHAPS
EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES/HR.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ON A VERY SMALL
SCALE...BUT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND SUCH HIGH RAINFALL
RATES...THESE TOTALS MAY BE UNDERDONE. EXPECT SOME FURTHER
EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33328566 33298486 32748472 32498522 32398594
            32488643 32788647 33028628