MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0561
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL...WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 251505Z - 252000Z

SUMMARY...VERY SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR DATA
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL MCV MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN AL AND BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD FAR
WESTERN AREAS OF GA. VERY SLOW MOVING COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO GENERATE THIS HOUR AROUND PREDOMINANTLY THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE MCV WHERE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND
INSTABILITY IS SITUATED.

THE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR 2.25 INCHES...AND WITH HIGHLY
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE DEEP THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE RAINFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY...AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2.5
INCHES/HR WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
EAST-SOUTHEAST DRIFT OF THE MCV THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TAKE IT MORE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS O F GA.
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLANKS OF THE MCV SHOULD REMAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AL AND ALSO SOUTHWEST GA.

EXPECT AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32998531 32868456 32628387 32088348 31378395
            31288471 31338516 31538585 31788621 32208635
            32658626 32948583