MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0568
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
934 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 270135Z - 270600Z

SUMMARY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPGLIDE SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MODEST TRAINING PROFILE. RAIN RATES UP TO
2.5"/HR POSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERN IN EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERTICALLY
STACKED SFC-8H LOW NEAR GBD KS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY 30KT LLJ
TOWARD MHK/MCI.  WEAK ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
SUPPORTS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKLY
DEFINED WNW-ESE ORIENTED TRAILING TROF FROM WEAK MCV EAST OF KC
METRO PER KEAX RADAR.

00Z TOP SOUNDING SUGGESTS NARROW SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH VALUES
IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY SATURATED
PROFILE WITH TPW AT 2.25". GOES-16 10.3UM IR AND LAST VISIBLE
IMAGES OF THE EVENING SHOW NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING/CAULIFORM TOPS
RAPIDLY COOLING TO REACH -75C SUGGESTING  VERY DEEP RAINFALL
PRODUCTION COLUMN AND SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN RATES AT OR AT TIMES IN
EXCESS OF 2.5"/HR. 

ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR TRAINING ALSO EXISTS ACROSS NE KS INTO NW
MO GIVEN DEEP FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  GIVEN
RATES AND TRAINING SETUP...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5" MAY BE POSSIBLE
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40169392 40129285 39259283 38879374 38869490
            39169611 39809671 39939574 40029483