MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0570
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 270602Z - 271002Z

SUMMARY...SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SECTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. WITHIN A HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ENVIRONMENT EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA SHOW FAIRLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
MO. SUCH IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ATTEMPTS AT BACKBUILDING INTO
NORTHEASTERN KS. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY
ANOMALOUS TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 2.25 TO 2.50 INCH RANGE PER GPS DATA. BASED ON THE
00Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA KS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER
OF 15 KFT INDICATIVE OF THE DOMINANCE OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES HERE.
THE 05Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
REMNANT INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO SUGGESTING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS FAIRLY EMPHATIC ABOUT A
BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ACROSS SECTIONS OF
WESTERN MO. THE SOLUTION MOST CLOSELY MIMICING RECENT MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY IS THE 00Z NSSL-WRF...ALTHOUGH IT IS A HAIR SLOW.
FURTHER...ITS 6 HOUR FORECAST OF QPF IS PERHAPS TOO FAR WEST BASED
ON RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. REGARDLESS...THERE APPEARS TO BE
A STRONG ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39739510 39659381 39209302 38179274 37749305
            37719374 38029460 38289528 38679597 39369603