MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0572
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
602 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN MO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 271001Z - 271346Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS PRODUCED A NUMBER OF FLASH
FLOOD REPORTS...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY NOSE
SOUTHWARD SPREADING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2
INCHES/HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY OVER
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN ON THE RECEIVING END OF THIS EVENT.

DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE NIGHT OF CONVECTION HAS DROPPED ABUNDANT
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MO. IN PARTICULAR...THE
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SAW A BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH LOCAL
GAUGE DATA SHOWING A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
MIDNIGHT. A SLEW OF FLASH FLOOD REPORTS WERE NOTED IN THAT REGION
INCLUDING A NUMBER OF WATER RESCUES. DUAL-POL RADAR DATA INDICATES
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE APPROACHED THE 2 TO 2.50 INCH RANGE
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED. RECENT
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS BEGUN TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. GIVEN THE 09Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION WITH A GRADUAL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
BETTER RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY.

WHILE THE 00Z NSSL-WRF WAS INITIALLY DOING A DECENT JOB HANDLING
THE CONVECTION...IT IS TOO FAR WEST. RATHER...THE 08Z HRRR/07Z
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE SOLUTIONS FAVOR AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD RISK.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39129442 39039317 38559247 37729229 37449292
            37209356 37239411 37559456 38669487