MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0574
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
950 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 271345Z - 271745Z

SUMMARY...STILL EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3
MICRON/IR DATA SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND THE KANSAS
CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MO AND
EAST-CENTRAL KS.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME COLDER CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER PARTS
OF EAST-CENTRAL KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE WEDGE
FEATURE...AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A BAND OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN STILL IMPACTING PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS AND STRETCHING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MO AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT LOCALLY AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY...AND THUS SOME ADDITIONAL. FLASH
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST LOCALLY. THE MODELS THOUGH SHOW
THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE WAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38719535 38269395 38209283 38069195 37329177
            36789210 36669291 36759396 37309494 38099587
            38709603