MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0578
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
640 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHEASTERN CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 272240Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...STRONG UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE OVER TERRAIN STARTING TO MOVE
OFF WITH POTENTIAL FOR CELL MERGERS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR DEPICTS CONTINUED EXPANSION/COOLING OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SANGRE DE CRISTOS OF NM WITH NUMEROUS
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ON THE SE EDGE INDICATING MAX HEATING HAS BEEN
REACHED AND CELLS ARE STARTING TO MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN.  SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE TX PANHANDLE REACHES THE PARK
PLATEAU...LEADING TO A FOCUSED UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WHILE
NORTHEASTERLY MST FLOW PROVIDES ADDITIONAL MST CONVERGENCE FROM
BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE PROXIMITY FO COLFAX TO
SPRINGER,NM.  SFC TDS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COLLOCATED
WITH SW TO NE MOISTURE AXIS PER CIRA LAYERED PW ANALYSIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN RAINFALL EFFICIENCY OF THE CELLS.

CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A COLLISION OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS
OVER COLFAX/MORA COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD LOCALLY INCREASE RAIN RATES
UP TO 2"/HR...AND GIVEN THIS IS A LOCAL MINIMA IN FFG VALUES THIS
MAY POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. 
AFTERWARD THE DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND INFLOW ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY REDUCED
TOTALS BUT POSSIBLE RATES THAT MAY POSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
TO PRONE WASHES/ARROYOS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37980501 37500409 37000260 36240274 35500320
            35330382 35120468 34970521 34880605 35400637
            36520553 37270554 37750551