MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0585
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST AZ...NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHWEST CO...EXT
SOUTHEAST UT

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 282000Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH VICINITY OF
SHORTWAVE AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW POSES FLASH FLOOD RISK. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV DEPICTS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NACIMIENTO RANGE IN NORTH CENTRAL NM THAT IS EXPECTED TO ELONGATE
TOWARD THE NORTH UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE
SHORTWAVE OVER NV USHERING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...YET THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK BUT
BROADLY FROM THE EAST TRANSPORTING THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE BUBBLE OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/TN VALLEY
(PER LONG CIRA LAYERED PW TREND). AS SUCH FAIRLY STRONG UPSLOPE
MOIST FLOW HAS SPARKED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NACIMIENTO AND WESTERN NM RANGES OF THE GALLINA/TULAROSA/MONGOLLON
MOUNTAINS.  WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY THE FLOW WILL SUPPLY
MOISTURE FLUX UP THE RANGES TO SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OR TERRAIN
LOCKING THAT POSES FLASH FLOODING RISK. 

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALSO BREAKING OUT ON THE MEAN DEFORMATION
ZONE/MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT CONNECTS THE MCV CURRENTLY IN NE
AZ...AMPLE MOISTURE OVER 1.25" WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MTNS AS WELL IN SW CO.

ANOTHER LOCATION OF STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN INCREASING SWLY
FLOW PROVIDES MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SEA OF CORTEZ ALONG THE
MOGOLLON WITH UPPER LEVEL RGT ENTRANCE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AS
WELL A LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/INSTABILITY TO
1000 J/KG IS SPARKING MUCH DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AS WELL.

WITH TIME LIKELY BY 22-23Z CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE TERRAIN AND CONGEAL INTO MERGING COMPLEXES ACROSS THE PLATEAUS
OF NE AZ/NW NM TO FEED OFF THE STEADILY INCREASING INSTABILITY
SUGGESTED BY THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS SUCH AS THE
RAP/HRRR...INCREASING FLOODING CONCERNS IN THOSE LOCALS AFTER 00Z.


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39490778 39460720 39000673 38470641 37930652
            36620631 35800643 34870742 34150780 33040792
            33480987 33821092 34141176 34631233 35281242
            35501195 35491158 36251031 37480943 38440937
            39290867