MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0590
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
927 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AZ...NORTHWEST NM...SOUTHWEST CO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 290130Z - 290600Z

SUMMARY...A FEW MORE HOURS OF NEARLY STATIONARY/QUICK BURSTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...WANING VISIBLE GOES-16 LOOP DETECTS NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE COLORADO PLATEAU EMERGING
FROM SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES.  BOUNDARIES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND AS THEY EMERGE FROM THEIR RANGES...THEY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ASCENT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE TOWERS THAT QUICKLY REACH -60C/EL AND
CONVERT THE NARROW SKINNY PROFILES (SUGGESTED BY 00Z FGZ AS PROXY)
INTO QUICK WET DOWNDRAFTS WITH HIGH RATES GREATER THAN 2"/HR WITH
TOTALS UP TO 1.0-1.5" BEFORE REINFORCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. GIVEN
RECENT WETTED SOILS FROM ACTIVE WEEK OF THE MONSOON...FLASH
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THOUGH DIMINISHING. 

MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW/EVACUATION AT CONFLUENCE OF RETURN FLOW
AROUND ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST AND EXITING NORTHERN STREAM S/W
ACROSS N UT...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS VERY NEAR THE
EASTERLY S/W NEAR NW NM ENTERING SW CO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER/EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS...PERHAPS EXTENDING THE THREAT FOR MORE MODEST (GIVEN
NEARLY EXHAUSTED ELEVATED INSTABILITY) RAINFALL.

GALLINA  

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38630798 38450753 37870724 37410701 37210639
            37300550 36780525 36090505 35470507 35220541
            35010597 34710652 34280867 34080996 34411130
            35071206 35981220 36441140 36801024 37360960
            38170907 38480866