MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0596
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST NM...EASTERN CO...WESTERNMOST OK
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 300125Z - 300530Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 IR CLEAN LOOP SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO IN THE PRESENCE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
(BASED ON 30/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC).

A 15 TO 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS TRANSPORTING 1.25/1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
(THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.64 INCHES ON THE 30/00Z DDC
SOUNDING). THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IS SUPPLYING THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST CO...
AND THE KPUX RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50
INCHES...BUT THE PRESENCE OF HAIL MAY BE RESULTING IN AN
OVERESTIMATION OF THE HOURLY RATES.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOT...AND
AS PROPAGATION VECTORS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE 850-300 MB
MEAN LAYER WIND...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING INCREASES WITH TIME.
THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2.00-3.00
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST CO.

THE MOST RECENT HRRR PERCENT OF SOIL SATURATION PRODUCT SHOWED
AREAS WITH WET SOILS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO...AND AS THE
CONVECTION PASSES OVER THESE AREAS...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
IS ENHANCED.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   40490193 39180103 36980175 36440217 36350271
            36430316 36600370 37010440 37600523 38910605
            40000422 40360314