MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 598
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SE COLORADO...NE NEW MEXICO...OK/TX
PANHANDLES...W KANSAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 300537Z - 300937Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTENDING INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED MULTIPLE REGIONS
OF SUB -60C CLOUD TOPS OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE PRESENCE
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

A 15 TO 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ADVECTING 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH PW VALUES IN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THIS REGION.  ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW. 
RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS IS LIKELY AND THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN SOME AREAS.  THE MOST RECENT
HRRR RUN SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AND GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THIS IS CERTAINLY WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

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            37630074 36530131 35700230 35530354 35740432
            36490526 37540533 38360447 39200381 40230291
            40580199 40610097