MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0601
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NM...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 301845Z - 310045Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW-MOVING CELLS AND
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO. THE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITH ASSISTANCE OF A WEAK 700/500MB
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT ENERGY WHICH IS NOTED IN
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 0.64 MICRON/VIS IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO. MEANWHILE...A VERY
MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE GIVEN
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND POOLING OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS.

IN FACT...THE LATEST CIRA-LPW DATA SHOWS CONCENTRATED MOISTURE IN
THE 700/300MB LAYER WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES. THIS COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHICS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES/HR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE.

THE LATEST HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z...WITH
FORECAST AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NM MAY
POTENTIALLY SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE TO 5
INCHES AS THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND NSSL-WRF GUIDANCE HERE SUPPORTS
SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING INTERACTING WITH
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND MORE ANOMALOUS PWATS THAT ARE FORECAST TO
REACH TO OVER 2 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT FLASH FLOODING TO BE
AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...EPZ...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39540432 39310300 38630212 38120201 37010240
            36560296 36260389 35620471 34380524 33030538
            32660619 32790737 33210854 34010889 35200869
            35840852 36280844 37540833 38470771 39270664
            39500542